- 行业: Economy; Printing & publishing
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The Big Mac index was devised by Pam Woodall of The Economist in 1986, as a light-hearted guide to whether currencies are at their "correct" level. It is based on one of the oldest concepts in international economics, purchasing power parity (PPP), the notion that a dollar, say, should buy the same amount in all countries. In the long run, argue PPP fans, currencies should move towards the exchange rate, which equalizes the prices of an identical basket of goods and services in each country. In this case, the basket is a McDonalds' Big Mac, which is produced in more than 100 countries. The Big Mac PPP is the exchange rate that would leave hamburgers costing the same in the United States as elsewhere. Comparing actual exchange rates with PPP signals whether a currency is undervalued or overvalued. Some studies have found that the Big Mac index is often a better predictor of currency movements than more theoretically rigorous models.
Industry:Economy
Part of an economic theory for valuing financial securities and calculating the cost of capital, known as the capital asset pricing model, beta measures the sensitivity of the price of a particular asset to changes in the market as a whole. If a company's shares have a beta of 0. 8 it implies that on average the share price will change by 0. 8% if there is a 1% change in the market. There is a long-running debate about whether a beta calculated from a security's past relationship with the market actually predicts how that relationship will behave in future, leading some doubting economists to claim that beta is "dead".
Industry:Economy
A branch of economics that concentrates on explaining the economic decisions people make in practice, especially when these conflict with what conventional economic theory predicts they will do. Behaviorists try to augment or replace traditional ideas of economic rationality (homo economicus) with decision-making models borrowed from psychology. According to psychologists, people are disproportionately influenced by a fear of feeling regret and will often forgo benefits even to avoid only a small risk of feeling they have failed. They are also prone to cognitive dissonance, often holding on to a belief plainly at odds with new evidence, usually because the belief has been held and cherished for a long time. Then there is anchoring: people are often overly influenced by outside suggestion. People apparently also suffer from status quo bias: they are willing to take bigger gambles to maintain the status quo than they would be to acquire it in the first place. Traditional utility theory assumes that people make individual decisions in the context of the big picture. But psychologists have found that they generally compartmentalize, often on superficial grounds. They then make choices about things in one particular mental compartment without taking account of the implications for things in other compartments. There is lots of evidence that people are persistently and irrationally overconfident. They are also vulnerable to hindsight bias: once something happens they overestimate the extent to which they could have predicted it. Many of these traits are captured in prospect theory, which is at the heart of much of behavioral economics.
Industry:Economy
An investor who thinks that the price of a particular security or class of securities (shares, say) is going to fall; the opposite of a bull.
Industry:Economy
One one-hundredth of a percentage point. Small movements in the interest rate, the exchange rate and bond yields are often described in terms of basis points. If a bond yield moves from 5. 25% to 5. 45%, it has risen by 20 basis points.
Industry:Economy
An attempt to reduce the number of bank failures by tying a bank's capital adequacy ratio to the riskiness of the loans it makes. For instance, there is less chance of a loan to a government going bad than a loan to, say, an internet business, so the bank should not have to hold as much capital in reserve against the first loan as against the second. The first attempt to do this worldwide was by the Basel committee for international banking supervision in 1988. However, its system of judging the relative riskiness of different loans was crude. For instance, it penalized banks no more for making loans to a fly-by-night software company in Thailand than to Microsoft; no more for loans to South Korea, bailed out by the IMF in 1998, than to Switzerland. In 1998, "Basel 2" was proposed, using much more sophisticated risk classifications. However, controversy over these new classifications, and the cost to banks of administering the new approach, led to the introduction of Basel 2 being delayed until (at least) 2005.
Industry:Economy
Paying for goods or services with other goods or services, instead of with money. It is often popular when the quality of money is low or uncertain, perhaps because of high inflation or counterfeiting, or when people are asset-rich but cash-poor, or when taxation or extortion by criminals is high. Little wonder, then, that barter became popular in Russia during the late 1990s.
Industry:Economy
How firms keep out competition--an important source of incumbent advantage. There are four main sorts of barriers. * A firm may own a crucial resource, such as an oil well, or it may have an exclusive operating license, for instance, to broadcast on a particular radio wavelength. * A big firm with economies of scale may have a significant competitive advantage because it can produce a large output at lower costs than can a smaller potential rival. * An incumbent firm may make it hard for a would-be entrant by incurring huge sunk costs, spending lots of money on things such as advertising, which any rival must match to compete effectively but which have no value if the attempt to compete should fail. * Powerful firms can discourage entry by raising exit costs, for example, by making it an industry norm to hire workers on long-term contracts, which make firing an expensive process.
Industry:Economy
When a court judges that a debtor is unable to make the payments owed to a creditor. How bankrupts are treated can affect economic growth. If bankrupts are punished too severely, would-be entrepreneurs may be discouraged from taking the financial risks needed to make the most of their ideas. However, letting off defaulting debtors too readily may discourage potential creditors because of moral hazard. America's bankruptcy code, in particular its Chapter 11 protection for firms from their creditors, is particularly friendly to troubled borrowers, allowing them to borrow more money and giving them time to work out their problems. Some other countries quickly close down a bankrupt firm, and try to repay its debts by selling off any assets it has.
Industry:Economy
Starting out as places that would guard your money, banks became the main source of credit creation. Increasingly, however, borrowers are turning to the financial markets and to non-savings institutions, such as credit-card companies and consumer-finance firms, when they need a loan. This is reducing the profitability of traditional bank lending and has led many banks to enter new areas of business, such as selling insurance policies and mutual funds. Increasingly, too, traditional banks are selling off parcels of their loans in the financial markets by a process called securitization. What the most efficient split is between bank lending and other sorts of lending is debatable. Economists argue endlessly about whether an economy such as the United States, in which firms rely more heavily on the equity and debt markets than on banks to fund their investment, is better than one such as, say, Germany, in which banks have traditionally been the main source of corporate finance. Banks come in many different forms. Commercial banks, also known as retail banks, cater directly for the general public and lend to (mostly small and medium-sized) firms. In the past, they did so largely through a network of bank branches, although increasingly these are giving way to ATM machines, the telephone and the Internet. Wholesale banks largely transact with other banks and financial institutions. Investment banks, also known as merchant banks, concentrate on raising money for companies from private investors or in the financial markets, by finding buyers for their equity and corporate bonds. Universal banks do most or all of the above including, through bancassurance, selling insurance. These banks have long been a feature of continental European economies. However, in the United States financial laws such as the Glass-Steagall Act have separated different forms of banking from each other and kept banks out of the insurance business. These laws were abolished in 1999, although during the preceding couple of decades regulators effectively dismantled them by changing the way they were applied. Even so, because of these and other laws, which for many years stopped banks from operating across state borders, the United States has far more lending institutions than other countries. In 2003 there were over four lending institutions per 100,000 people in the United States, compared with fewer than one per 100,000 in the UK and France.
Industry:Economy
