- 行业: Economy; Printing & publishing
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The oil that keeps the economy working smoothly. Economic efficiency is likely to be greatest when information is comprehensive, accurate and cheaply available. Many of the problems facing economies arise from people making decisions without all the information they need. One reason for the failure of the command economy is that government planners were not good at gathering and processing information. Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand is all about how, in many cases, free markets are much more efficient at processing information on the needs of all the participants in an economy than is the visible, and often dead, hand of state planners. Asymmetric information, when one party to a deal knows more than the other party, can be a serious source of inefficiency and market failure. Uncertainty can also impose large economic costs. The internet, by greatly increasing the availability and lowering the price of information, is helping to boost economic efficiency. But there are inefficiencies the internet will not be able to solve. Uncertainty will remain a huge source of economic inefficiency. Alas, potentially the most useful information, about what will happen in the future, is never available until it is too late.
Industry:Economy
Very, very bad. Although people debate when, precisely, very rapid inflation turns into ¬hyper-inflation (a 100% or more increase in prices a year, perhaps?) nobody questions that it wreaks huge economic damage. After the first world war, German prices at one point were rising at a rate of 23,000% a year before the country’s economic system collapsed, creating a political opportunity grasped by the Nazis. In former Yugoslavia in 1993, prices rose by around 20% a day. Typically, hyper-inflation quickly leads to a complete loss of confidence in a country’s currency, and causes people to search for other forms of money that are a better store of value. These may include physical assets, gold and foreign currency. Hyper-inflation might be easier to live with if it was stable, as people could plan on the basis that prices would rise at a fast but predictable rate. However, there are no examples of stable hyper-inflation, precisely because it occurs only when there is a crisis of confidence across the economy, with all the behavioral unpredictability this implies.
Industry:Economy
The goal of monetary policy in many countries is to ensure that inflation is neither too high nor too low. It became fashionable during the 1990s to set a country's central bank an explicit rate of inflation to target. By 1998, some 54 central banks had an inflation target, compared with just eight at the end of 1990, the year in which New Zealand's Reserve Bank became the first to be set a target. In most industrialized countries, the target, or, typically, the mid-point of a target range, for consumer-price inflation is between 1% and 2. 5%. The reason it is not zero is that official price indices overstate inflation, and that the countries would prefer a little inflation to any deflation. Monetary policy takes time to have an impact. So central banks usually base their policy changes on a forecast of inflation, not its current rate. If forecast inflation in two years' time, say, is above the target, interest rates are raised. If it is below target, rates are cut. Why have an inflation target? Setting an inflation target usually goes hand-in-hand with allowing a central bank considerable discretion in setting policy, so transparency in its decision-making is vital and is therefore usually increased as part of the process of adopting a target. More fundamentally, by making it easier to judge whether policy is on track, an inflation target makes it easier to hold a central bank to account for its performance. The pay of central bankers can be designed to reward them for achieving the target. But some central bankers argue that an inflation target restricts their policy flexibility too much, which is one reason why the world's most powerful central bank, America's Federal Reserve, has argued (so far successfully) against having one.
Industry:Economy
Rising prices, across the board. Inflation means less bang for your buck, as it erodes the purchasing power of a unit of currency. Inflation usually refers to consumer prices, but it can also be applied to other prices (wholesale goods, wages, assets, and so on). It is usually expressed as an annual percentage rate of change on an index number. For much of human history inflation has not been an important part of economic life. Before 1930, prices were as likely to fall as rise during any given year, and in the long run these ups and downs usually cancelled each other out. By contrast, by the end of the 20th century, 60-year-old Americans had seen prices rise by over 1,000% during their lifetime. The most spectacular period of inflation in industrialized countries took place during the 1970s, partly as a result of sharp increases in oil prices implemented by the OPEC cartel. Although these countries have mostly regained control over inflation since the 1980s, it continued to be a source of serious problems in many developing countries. Inflation would not do much damage if it were predictable, as everybody could build into their decision making the prospect of higher prices in future. In practice, it is unpredictable, which means that people are often surprised by price increases. This reduces economic efficiency, not least because people take fewer risks to minimize the chances of suffering too severely from a price shock. The faster the rate of inflation, the harder it is to predict future inflation. Indeed, this uncertainty can cause people to lose confidence in a currency as a store of value. This is why hyper-inflation is so damaging. Most economists agree that an economy is most likely to function efficiently if inflation is low. Ideally, macroeconomic policy should aim for stable prices. Some economists argue that a low level of inflation can be a good thing, however, if it is a result of innovation. New products are launched at high prices, which quickly come down through competition. Most economists reckon that deflation (falling average prices) is best avoided. To keep inflation low you need to know what causes it. Economists have plenty of theories but no absolutely cast-iron conclusions. Inflation, Milton Friedman once said, “is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”. Monetarists reckon that to stabilize prices the rate of growth of the money supply needs to be carefully controlled. However, implementing this has proven difficult, as the relationship between measures of the money supply identified by monetarists and the rate of inflation has typically broken down as soon as policymakers have tried to target it. Keynesian economists believe that inflation can occur independently of monetary conditions. Other economists focus on the importance of institutional factors, such as whether the interest rate is set by politicians or (preferably) by an independent central bank, and whether that central bank is set an inflation target. Is there a relationship between inflation and the level of unemployment? In the 1950s, the Phillips curve seemed to indicate that policymakers could trade off higher inflation for lower unemployment. Later experience suggested that although inflating the economy could lower unemployment in the short run, in the long run you ended up with unemployment at least as high as before and rising inflation as well. Economists then came up with the idea of the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), the rate of unemployment below which inflation would start to accelerate. However, in the late 1990s, in both the United States and the UK, the unemployment rate fell well below what most economists thought was the NAIRU yet inflation did not pick up. This caused some economists to argue that technological and other changes wrought by the new economy meant that inflation was dead. Traditionalists said it was merely resting.
Industry:Economy
Merging with another firm just like yours, for example, two biscuit makers becoming one. Contrast with vertical integration, which is merging with a firm at a different stage in the supply chain. Horizontal integration often raises antitrust concerns, as the combined firm will have a larger market share than either firm did before merging.
Industry:Economy
A Peruvian economist who advocates establishing formal property rights for the poor to help them rapidly escape from poverty. In books such as The Other Path and The Mystery of Capital, he argued that, in developing countries, capitalism will thrive in the long run only if legal systems change so that most of the people feel that the law is on their side. One of the best ways to achieve this is to give full legal protection to the de facto property rights that are observed informally by the poor, such as when a community recognizes that a certain family is entitled to occupy a particular piece of land. According to his research, carried out in several countries with his think tank, the Institute for Liberty and Democracy, such informal property rights cover assets (notably land and housing) worth many billions of dollars. Informal systems of property rights usually make such assets "dead capital", meaning that it is hard to use them as collateral for a loan, which might be used to start a business, for example. He argues with that an efficient, inclusive legal system preceded rapid development in every rich country and that bringing these rights into the formal legal system of poor, developing countries will unleash this hitherto dead capital and spur growth. His ideas have been much talked about but little acted upon.
Industry:Economy
These bogey-men of the financial markets are often blamed, usually unfairly, when things go wrong. There is no simple definition of a hedge fund (few of them actually hedge). But they all aim to maximize their absolute returns rather than relative ones; that is, they concentrate on making as much money as possible, not (like many mutual funds) simply on outperforming an index. Although they are often accused of disrupting financial markets by their speculation, their willingness to bet against the herd of other investors may push security prices closer to their true fundamental values, not away.
Industry:Economy
Reducing your risks. Hedging involves deliberately taking on a new risk that offsets an existing one, such as your exposure to an adverse change in an exchange rate, interest rate or commodity price. Imagine, for example, that you are British and you are to be paid $1m in three months’ time. You are worried that the dollar may have fallen in value by then, thus reducing the number of pounds you will be able to convert the $1m into. You can hedge away that currency risk by buying $1m of pounds at the current exchange rate (in effect) in the futures market. Hedging is most often done by commodity producers and traders, financial institutions and, increasingly, by non-financial firms. It used to be fashionable for firms to hedge by following a policy of diversification. More recently, firms have hedged using financial instruments and derivatives. Another popular strategy is to use “natural” hedges wherever possible. For example, if a company is setting up a factory in a particular country, it might finance it by borrowing in the currency of that country. An extension of this idea is operational hedging, for example, relocating production facilities to get a better match of costs in a given currency to revenue. Hedging sounds prudent, but some economists reckon that firms should not do it because it reduces their value to shareholders. In the 1950s, two economists, Merton Miller (1923–2000) and Franco Modigliani, argued that firms make money only if they make good investments, the kind that increase their operating cashflow. Whether these investments are financed through debt, equity or retained earnings is irrelevant. Different methods of financing simply determine how a firm’s value is divided between its various sorts of investors (for example, shareholders or bondholders), not the value itself. This surprising insight helped win each of them a Nobel Prize. If they are right, there are big implications for hedging. If methods of financing and the character of financial risks do not matter, managing them is pointless. It cannot add to the firm’s value; on the contrary, as hedging does not come free, doing it might actually lower that value. Moreover, argued Messrs Miller and Modigliani, if investors want to avoid the financial risks attached to holding shares in a firm, they can diversify their portfolio of shareholdings. Firms need not manage their financial risks; investors can do it for themselves. Few managers agree.
Industry:Economy
Money you can trust. A hard currency is expected to retain its value, or even benefit from appreciation, against softer currencies. This makes it a popular choice for people involved in international transactions. The dollar, D-Mark, sterling and the Swiss franc each became a hard currency, if only some of the time, during the 20th century.
Industry:Economy
