- 行业: Economy; Printing & publishing
- Number of terms: 15233
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Spawned by the end of the colonial era in the 1950s and 1960s, a whole branch of economic theory grew up around the question of how to promote economic development in poor countries. The proposition on which development economics was built was that poor countries were intrinsically different from rich ones and so needed their own set of economic models. Some development economists argued, for instance, that the self-interested, rational individual (homo economicus) did not exist in traditional tribal societies. They claimed that because many poor countries had large agricultural populations and were often dependent on a few commodity exports for foreign exchange earnings, economic policies that suited rich countries would not work for them. With hindsight, much of this was misguided, and policies based on it had disastrous effects. Development economists believed that the state had to play a big role in fostering modernization. Instead, the result was huge, inefficient ¬bureaucracies riddled with corruption, massive budget deficits and rampant inflation. During the 1990s, most governments of developing countries started to reverse these policies and undo the damage they had done by introducing policies based on similar economic models to those that had worked in rich countries. However, the sequencing of these new policies seemed to make a big difference to how well they worked. Doing the right things in the right order is crucial.
Industry:Economy
Protection for your savings, in case your bank goes Bust. Arrangements vary around the world, but in most countries deposit insurance is required by the government and paid for by banks (and, ultimately, their customers), which contribute a small slice of their assets to a central, usually government-run, insurance fund. If a bank defaults, this fund guarantees its customers’ deposits, at least up to a certain amount. By reassuring banks’ customers that their cash is protected, deposit insurance aims to prevent them from panicking and causing a bank run, and thereby reduces systemic risk. The United States introduced it in 1933, after a massive bank panic led to widespread bankruptcy, deepening its depression. The downside of deposit insurance is that it creates a moral hazard. By insulating depositors from defaults, deposit insurance reduces their incentive to monitor banks closely. Also banks can take greater risks, safe in the knowledge that there is a state-financed safety net to catch them if they fall. There are no easy solutions to this moral hazard. One approach is to monitor what banks do very closely. This is easier said than done, not least because of the high cost. Another is to ensure capital adequacy by requiring banks to set aside, just in case, specified amounts of capital when they take on different amounts of risk. Alternatively, the state safety net could be shrunk, by splitting banks into two types: super-safe, government-insured “narrow banks” that stick to traditional business and invest only in secure assets; and uninsured institutions, “broad banks”, that could range more widely under a much lighter regulatory system. Savers who invested in a broad bank would probably earn much higher returns because it could invest in riskier assets; but they would also lose their shirts if it went bust. Yet another possible answer is to require every bank to finance a small proportion of its assets by selling subordinated debt to other institutions, with the stipulation that the yield on this debt must not be more than so many (say 50) basis points higher than the rate on a corresponding risk-free instrument. Subordinated debt (uninsured certificates of deposit) is simply junior debt. Its holders are at the back of the queue for their money if the bank gets into trouble and they have no safety net. Investors will buy subordinated debt at a yield quite close to the risk-free interest rate only if they are sure the bank is low risk. To sell its debt, the bank will have to persuade informed investors of this. If it cannot convince them it cannot operate. This exploits the fact that bankers know more about banking than do their supervisors. It asks banks not to be good citizens but to look only to their profits. Unlike the present regime, it exploits all the available information and properly aligns everybody’s incentives. This ingenious idea was first tried in Argentina, where it became a victim of the country's economic, banking and political crisis of 2001-02 before it really had a chance to prove itself.
Industry:Economy
Failure to fulfill the terms of a loan agreement. For example, a borrower is in default if he or she does not make scheduled interest payments on a loan or fails to pay off the loan at the agreed time. Judging the likelihood of default is a crucial part of pricing a loan. Interest rates are set so that, on average , a portfolio of loans will be profitable to the creditor , even if some individual loans are loss-making as a result of borrowers defaulting.
Industry:Economy
Cancelling or rescheduling a borrower’s debts to lessen the pain of the debt burden. Debt forgiveness is increasingly viewed as the best way to relieve the financial problems facing poorer countries. Some of these countries have to pay so much in interest each year to foreign lenders that they have little money left to spend on the long-term solutions to their poverty, such as educating their workers and building a modern infrastructure. In 1998 the World Bank calculated that around 40 of the world’s poorest countries had an “unsustainably high” debt burden: the present value of their total debts was more than 220% of their exports. Debt forgiveness has potential drawbacks. For instance, there is a risk of moral hazard. If countries that borrow too much are let off their financial obligations, poor countries may feel they have nothing to lose by borrowing as much as they can. This is why policymakers often argue that debt forgiveness should come with a conditionality clause, for instance, a requirement that countries have a track record of implementing economic reforms designed to prevent a repeat of the errors that first created the need for debt forgiveness. This is the approach taken by the World Bank's HIPC (highly indebted poor country) initiative, launched in 1996 and expanded in 1999. However, by 2003, only eight of the 38 poor countries eligible under the program had made enough progress in reform to have some debt forgiven.
Industry:Economy
The fertility rate required in a country to keep its population steady. In rich countries, this is usually reckoned to be 2. 1 children per woman, the extra 0. 1 reflecting the likelihood that some children will die before their parents. In poorer countries with higher infant mortality, the replacement rate may be much higher. In many countries, since the early 1990s the fertility rate has fallen below the replacement rate. There has been much debate about why, and much agreement that, if this trend continues, those countries may face long-term problems such as a relatively growing proportion of retired older people having to be supported by a relatively shrinking proportion of younger people.
Industry:Economy
An agreement in which one party sells a security to another party and agrees to buy it back on a specified date for a specified price. Central banks deal in short-term repos to provide liquidity to the financial system, buying securities from banks with cash on the condition that the banks will repurchase them a few weeks later.
Industry:Economy
The minimum expected return you require from an investment to be willing to go ahead with it.
Industry:Economy
Changing the payment schedule for a debt by agreement between borrower and lender. This is usually done when the borrower is struggling to make payments under the original schedule. Rescheduling can involve reducing interest ¬payments but extending the period over which they are collected; putting back the date of repayment of the loan; reducing interest payments but increasing the amount that has to be repaid eventually; and so on. The rescheduling may or may not require the lender to bear some financial loss. The rescheduling may or may not require the lender to bear some financial loss. The rescheduling of loans to countries usually takes place through the Paris Club and London Club.
Industry:Economy
